# Search Head Or Search Tail? Getting The Mix Right

Feb 27, 2006 - 5:09 pm 1

Misty Locke mods this one up.

Harrison Magun from Avenue A Razorfish

What is the probability of being a twin? 5% (fake numbers). What is the likelihood that the incidence of twins is actually 5%? He brings up a distribution curve, the probability is only 20.5%.

How big a sample do we need to be 90% sure that the incidence is between 4.5% and 5.5%? 5,044 people.

How do we use this data for keywords?

How many clicks do I need? Conversion Rate :: Clicks Needed 1% :: 25,000 2% :: 14,000 3% :: 9,000 4% :: 7,000 5% :: 5,000 10% :: 2,500

Say you have 400 clicks, conversion rate is 2% (you dont know that yet) and you act after 400 clicks, you have a 60% chance your made the wrong decision.

So how do we act on this data? - Don't waste your time on insignificant data - Sedate screaming lunatics (those that yell at you that you have 0 conversion on a hundred clicks) - Create accurate tests - Spread the tests out over time - Understand the factors that are impacting your conversion rates

How can you use these stats? - Excel - Your own categorization - Bid management algorithms and tool sets can save a lot of time but be careful - Add this knowledge into four levers of search -- Bid strategy -- Keyword creation -- Creatives and landing pages -- Business Intelligence

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