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We know it has been over 10 months since Google launched a Penguin update and Google explained it is complicated to just refresh it.
But this morning, in a Google+ Hangout, John Mueller kind of hinted that it is coming really soon. He talked about it at 21 minutes and 40 seconds into the video. He said "engineers are working on" and admits it has "been quiet a while" but said it is "not that far away" but it is "not launching this morning." But are you sure? Maybe this afternoon? Google likes launching these larger algorithms late Friday afternoons.
Here is the video:
All the tracking tools are going a bit nuts the whole week, including Mozcast, SERPs.com, SERP Metrics and Algoroo. Plus, the forums are continuing with their chatter.
WebmasterWorld has one SEO asking, "Perhaps a Penguin or Panda update is brewing?" With many claiming major changes:
I saw a big increase in traffic beginning at 6:00 am eastern time on Saturday, August 9. Previously I had suffered a 40-45% hit on March 14 and had a slight recovery to a 33% hit two months later. However, since August 9, the site had another recovery and yesterday it was 17% below pre-March 14. I don't know if that is a trend, but it looks like I was favored by whatever happened this past Saturday.
A BlackHatWorld thread has SEOs asking if Penguin is about to go live today based on all the fluctuations? Maybe Google is testing it widely now and about to push it out to everyone?
If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Penguin was released in the next couple weeks, if not this afternoon.
Forum discussion at BlackHatWorld & WebmasterWorld.
